Forrester model flags AI winners & losers in markets

Forrester has introduced an AI Disruption Model to assess how artificial intelligence is affecting technology and service markets. The research group says the model points to uneven effects across more than 200 markets.

Its analysis found that infrastructure, data and AI, and identity, access and network security are best placed to gain as companies move from AI testing to wider deployment of applications and autonomous agents. By contrast, labour-intensive service areas such as technology implementation, software development, creative services, localisation and training are expected to come under pressure as AI takes on work previously done by people.

Forrester applied the model to 17 technology and service categories spanning more than 200 individual markets. The framework assesses whether AI is likely to accelerate, disrupt, reshape or have limited impact on each one.

The model weighs factors including AI substitutability, labour intensity, support for agentic workloads, commercial models, data and trust advantages, research and development investment, regulatory friction, asset intensity and switching costs. The findings suggest AI will not produce a single outcome across software and services, but a more fragmented shift in which some suppliers benefit while others must adjust their business models.

Winners and losers

Areas identified as likely beneficiaries include cloud platforms, data centres, storage, AI models, AI platforms, data management, governance tools and cyber and identity products, including Zero Trust and security for AI agents. These markets are tied to the systems companies need to build, run, govern and secure AI tools at scale.

That contrasts with knowledge-work services that rely heavily on human effort. Transformation services and other skills-based offerings are more exposed where AI can substitute for coding, content creation, translation and similar tasks.

Enterprise software categories sit between those poles. The research found that business applications, governance and compliance tools, process automation software, customer experience systems and marketing technology are more likely to be reshaped than displaced.

Embedded workflows, regulatory requirements and switching costs may help those products retain their place in corporate technology estates, even as AI changes how users interact with them and alters the economics behind them. At the same time, demand for data, orchestration, governance and trust functions may support vendors that adapt their products to AI-led workflows.

The report challenges the idea that AI will trigger a broad collapse in software-as-a-service markets. Instead, it argues that the effects will vary sharply by category, with pressure concentrated in areas where tasks are standardised and labour forms a large share of costs.

For enterprise buyers, the findings suggest spending linked to AI deployment may increasingly flow to the underlying layers that support adoption rather than only to end-user AI applications. That includes investment in infrastructure, data handling, governance and security.

Market shift

The authors say the central issue for technology providers is not only where AI adoption is rising, but how the technology changes market structure and sources of value. Suppliers in affected segments may need to revisit pricing, product design and service delivery where AI reduces the amount of manual work involved.

Craig Le Clair and Ted Schadler, both vice president and principal analyst at Forrester, authored the research. Their work argues that AI is altering competitive positions across the sector rather than lifting all parts of the market equally.

"Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul," said Craig Le Clair, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. "Our research shows that AI's benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories - infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security - are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt."

The second report focuses on category-level analysis and is designed to help providers judge where AI may improve prospects, where it may alter demand patterns and where it may displace existing revenue streams. It positions the model as a tool for portfolio planning as suppliers and customers rethink technology priorities.

"The challenge for technology and service providers is not simply understanding where AI is advancing but how it will reshape the economics of their markets," said Ted Schadler, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. "Forrester's AI Disruption Model gives providers a practical framework to evaluate where AI is likely to accelerate their growth, transform their market dynamics, or replace existing sources of value. Providers can use the model to anticipate change and prioritise investments to thrive in the AI era."